World Cup 2026: The first 4 games in the Round of 32, with penalty shootouts and 3 late ...

Theory Briefing

• The 2026 World Cup's Round of 32 opened with penalty shootouts deciding matches, suggesting tight, evenly matched contests where small margins separate winners from losers.
• Three late goals across the first four knockout games point to teams either collapsing or surging under the specific pressure of elimination football.
• Penalty shootouts are widely seen as a lottery, yet research suggests psychological preparation and kick order meaningfully shift the odds.
• Late goals in knockout rounds can reflect fatigue-driven defensive errors or bold tactical substitutions — two very different explanations for the same scoreline.