The 2026 US Midterm Elections
- Status
- Tracking · Resolves Nov 3, 2026
- Event began
- Nov 3, 2026
- Theories tracked
- 9
- Last updated
- Jul 18, 2026, 8:00 PM
BREAKING THEORY BRIEFING
Jun 23, 2026Trump-backed candidate admits to attempted voter fraud, deepening GOP candidate-quality crisis ahead of 2026 midterms.
DAILY THEORY BRIEFING
Jul 18, 2026Trump's election-integrity offensive dominates the cycle as Nebraska primary data hands Democrats a rare structural signal.
THEORY BRIEFING
Republicans defend 53–47 in the Senate and ~218–217 in the House; Democrats need to flip three seats for the House majority.
Prediction Market Signal
Democrats control the House after the midterms?
85%▼ −1 pts 24hYes 84.5¢ · No 15.5¢
via Polymarket ↗since Jan 2026
$4,751,438 traded
Democrats control the Senate after the midterms?
44%▼ −2 pts 24hYes 43.5¢ · No 56.5¢
via Polymarket ↗since Jan 2026
$1,801,445 traded
Markets price outcomes. The Plausibility Index™ ranks explanations.
Plausibility Over Time
The Trump-only coalition doesn't transfer
The midterm is a referendum on the president
It's a cost-of-living referendum
The map mutes the wave
The specials are the signal
Trump's endorsements are selecting weaker general-election candidates
The specials are an artifact
The polls understate Republicans again
The realignment is durable
Latest Developments





