The 2026 US Midterm Elections
- Status
- Tracking · Resolves Nov 3, 2026
- Event began
- Nov 3, 2026
- Theories tracked
- 9
- Last updated
- Sep 3, 2026, 10:00 AM
BREAKING THEORY BRIEFING
Aug 29, 2026Veteran GOP staffers defect to Democratic Senate campaigns in two key 2026 flip targets.
DAILY THEORY BRIEFING
Sep 2, 2026Polymarket crosses 51% for a Democratic sweep, while dark money and mail-ballot integrity concerns cloud the path to November.
THEORY BRIEFING
Republicans defend 53–47 in the Senate and ~218–217 in the House; Democrats need to flip three seats for the House majority.
Prediction Market Signal
Democrats control the House after the midterms?
87%▼ −1 pts 24hYes 86.5¢ · No 13.5¢
via Polymarket ↗since Mar 2026
$6,053,315 traded
Democrats control the Senate after the midterms?
53%Yes 52.5¢ · No 47.5¢
via Polymarket ↗since Mar 2026
$2,510,353 traded
Markets price outcomes. The Plausibility Index™ ranks explanations.
Plausibility Over Time
The Trump-only coalition doesn't transfer
The midterm is a referendum on the president
It's a cost-of-living referendum
The map mutes the wave
The specials are the signal
Trump's endorsements are selecting weaker general-election candidates
The specials are an artifact
The polls understate Republicans again
The realignment is durable
Latest Developments






