The Strait Iran Cannot Let Go Of - RealClearWorld
realclearworld.com
Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz delivers real disruption — but the theory behind that leverage may be missing something critical.
Coercive Bargaining TheoryGame TheoryDeterrence TheoryGeopolitical Chokepoint Theory
Theory Briefing
- Iran's power over the Strait of Hormuz rests on roughly 20% of global oil passing through a single chokepoint it can threaten to shut.
- The disruption from closing the strait matched what strategic theory predicted, yet the article argues the theory still falls short somewhere.
- Iran cannot easily "let go" of the strait as a bargaining tool — its entire leverage posture depends on keeping the threat credible and live.
- What the theory missed, the article suggests, is a factor that survives even when the physical closure plays out as expected.