The real Thucydides trap is inside Western tech | The Strategist

Theory Briefing

• The Thucydides Trap theory — that a rising power inevitably clashes with a ruling one — has dominated Western strategic debate, but the article argues it has mainly served China's interests.
• While analysts argued over historical precedent, the real competitive battleground shifted to technology, where the article suggests the West risks falling behind.
• Framing rivalry as historically predetermined can discourage urgent action, effectively doing the work of the competitor you're worried about.
• The piece challenges whether borrowed ancient Greek frameworks are the right lens for a contest defined by semiconductors, AI, and supply chains.