Taiwan and Trump: Optimism With a Side Serve of Cope - Domino Theory
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Taiwan's cautious optimism about Trump may be textbook cope — here's how Domino Theory and great-power signaling explain why small states convince themselves they're safe.
Domino TheoryDeterrence TheoryMotivated ReasoningBalance of Power
Theory Briefing
- Taiwan's fate hinges on Trump-Xi relations, with a warm Beijing visit signaling potential great-power dealmaking at smaller states' expense.
- Domino Theory warns that a US soft-pedal on Taiwan could embolden regional challengers and trigger a cascade of geopolitical concessions.
- Taiwan's 'optimism' may reflect motivated reasoning — a psychological buffer against the terrifying reality of shrinking security guarantees.