Starbucks and McDonald's refreshers might be a quiet recession indicator.

Theory Briefing

• Starbucks and McDonald's refreshers are cheap, feel-good splurges that consumers keep buying even as bigger spending tightens — a classic small-luxury signal.
• The "lipstick effect" predicts that when budgets shrink, people trade down to affordable indulgences rather than cutting treats entirely.
• Refreshers sitting at a lower price point than lattes or frappuccinos makes them a natural refuge for cost-conscious but comfort-seeking customers.
• Tracking which menu items surge in popularity can act as an informal economic barometer before official recession data arrives.