Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
floridapolitics.com
Trump polling underwater in Florida — his home state — ahead of the midterms raises a sharp question: does political migration reshape a leader's base or erode it?
Realignment TheoryRetrospective VotingCoattail EffectSocial Identity Theory
Theory Briefing
- A new Global Strategy Group poll shows Trump with net-negative approval in Florida, the state he moved to and has called home since 2019.
- Florida's rapid demographic shift — driven partly by Trump-era migration of supporters — makes his slipping numbers there a test of whether symbolic home-state loyalty holds.
- The poll lands ahead of a 2026 Senate race in Florida, giving the numbers immediate electoral stakes beyond Trump's personal standing.
- Ashley Moody's Senate prospects and the broader GOP Florida map are directly implicated if the state's top brand is weakening.