New poll shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton by 5 points in Texas' U.S. Senate race

Theory Briefing

• One poll shows Talarico leading Paxton by 5 points in Texas, a state Republicans have dominated at the Senate level for decades.
• The race is shaping up as one of the most expensive of the 2026 midterms, signaling both parties see Texas as genuinely competitive.
• The outcome could influence whether Democrats flip the U.S. Senate, raising the national stakes well beyond Texas itself.
• Paxton's high name recognition — built through years of controversy — may cut both ways, energizing opponents as much as supporters.