"Kumamoto Earthquake Prediction Was Right" Rumors Spread Widely Along with Map Images
news.sbs.co.kr
A viral map claimed to predict the Kumamoto earthquake in advance — but does a correct-looking forecast prove foresight, or just the odds of guessing?
Survivorship BiasProportionality BiasIllusory Correlation
Theory Briefing
- Posts claiming the Kumamoto earthquake was predicted in advance spread widely, citing map images as supposed proof.
- The Yomiuri Shimbun flagged the claims as conspiracy-theory-style, suggesting the "predictions" may be retrofitted to a real disaster.
- When a map matches a real earthquake, people share it — maps that missed go unnoticed, making any hit look more remarkable than it is.