Kevin Hassett on Survey Sampling and Index Theory: He's NEC — Not CEA — Chair, but Really?
econbrowser.com
When a top economic adviser dismisses inconvenient survey data, it exposes a classic case of motivated reasoning colliding with index theory and sampling methodology.
Motivated ReasoningIndex TheorySurvey Sampling TheoryConfirmation Bias
Theory Briefing
- Kevin Hassett, NEC Chair, publicly questioned the U. Michigan consumer sentiment index — a benchmark tool in macroeconomic forecasting.
- His skepticism echoes motivated reasoning: officials tend to discredit data that contradicts their preferred economic narrative.
- Survey sampling theory holds that properly weighted indexes like Michigan's are robust signals, not noise — making Hassett's dismissal methodologically suspect.