House incumbents are having a historically bad year - The Hill

Theory Briefing

• House incumbents are being ousted in primaries at a historically high rate in the first cycle after Kamala Harris's 2024 loss.
• The unusual incumbent failure rate suggests the political fallout from 2024 is reshaping who survives inside both parties, not just between them.
• Incumbency advantage — normally one of the most reliable forces in U.S. elections — appears to be weakening under unusually high voter discontent.
• The 2026 midterms are shaping up as a stress test for whether name recognition and office-holding still protect candidates the way they once did.