Data for Progress on X: "NEW: Our first report on the swing voters of the 2026 midterms finds ...
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Swing voters in 2026 already have a policy wish list — and what's on it could redraw the midterm map before a single vote is cast.
Median Voter TheoremAgenda-Setting TheoryRational Choice Theory
Theory Briefing
- Data for Progress identified the specific policies that would make 2026 swing voters say they would "definitely" vote for a candidate.
- Swing voters — not the base — are the decisive bloc, and their policy priorities may not match either party's current platform.
- Early midterm polling like this shapes which issues campaigns invest in, creating a feedback loop between data and political strategy.