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China Thwarted in Classified Wargames, Says Former U.S. Official - Domino Theory

dominotheory.com

A former U.S. spy chief says classified wargames show China keeps losing — so why does the panic about its military buildup keep winning?

Threat InflationInformation AsymmetryGroupthinkDeterrence Theory
China Thwarted in Classified Wargames, Says Former U.S. Official - Domino Theory

Theory Briefing

  • Former Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair argues public alarm over China's military rise is overblown, citing classified wargame results.
  • Blair's essay challenges the prevailing threat narrative, suggesting insider simulation data tells a calmer story than official rhetoric.
  • The gap between classified outcomes and public messaging raises questions about who shapes the fear — and why.