China Thwarted in Classified Wargames, Says Former U.S. Official - Domino Theory
dominotheory.com
A former U.S. spy chief says classified wargames show China keeps losing — so why does the panic about its military buildup keep winning?
Threat InflationInformation AsymmetryGroupthinkDeterrence Theory

Theory Briefing
- Former Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair argues public alarm over China's military rise is overblown, citing classified wargame results.
- Blair's essay challenges the prevailing threat narrative, suggesting insider simulation data tells a calmer story than official rhetoric.
- The gap between classified outcomes and public messaging raises questions about who shapes the fear — and why.