Chaos theory: How to assess risk in a wildly unpredictable world - The Globe and Mail

Theory Briefing

• Chaos theory warns that tiny initial differences can cascade into massive, unforeseeable outcomes — the core problem in geopolitical forecasting.
• The article identifies underestimation of unpredictability as the fatal flaw in most risk analysis frameworks used by governments and investors.
• Traditional risk models assume a degree of order that complex, interconnected world systems simply do not possess, making them dangerously misleading.