Are Senate Polls Overrating Democrats' Chances? With Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
Senate polls have repeatedly overstated Democratic support — so what does that mean for how we should read 2026 midterm numbers right now?
Polling BiasHerding EffectForecasting ErrorBayesian Updating
Theory Briefing
- Senate polls have consistently leaned toward Democrats in recent cycles, raising questions about whether the same bias will skew 2026 midterm forecasts.
- Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights examines what structural polling errors might mean for how competitive Senate races are actually rated.
- If the overstatement pattern holds, races currently favoring Democrats may be closer — or flipped — than public polling suggests.