Obama: Losing the Message War on Healthcare

Pointed questions in town hall meetings using Republican playbook terms like 'rationing' and 'government takeover of healthcare' suggest Obama is losing the messaging war on the healthcare reform fight. The public seems to agree. A poll released by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal put Obama's approval at almost precisely where it was on election day. To NBC political director Chuck Todd, Obama is "Back to November 3, 2008."

A bruising battle with blue dog Democrats, tough (some would say loaded) questions from AARP callers at a town hall and a new, defensive style from the President points to one theory: the White House is losing the rhetorical war over Healthcare.

In a town hall meeting on July 28th with members of AARP, several callers asked questions using terms right out of Republican message-meister Frank Luntz's 'The Language of Healthcare 2009' -- including 'rationing,' 'government takeover.'

One caller even referenced 'rumors' she had heard, possible evidence of push-polling against the White House agenda. This, plus a bruising battle with Blue Dog Democrats suggest cracks in the Obama administration firmament.

All of this has toll on Barack Obama's approval ratings. In June, 21% of Republicans polled said they approved of the job the Obama administration was doing. As of July 30, that number had dropped to 16%. That's a 9 point drop from April. Unquestonably, the honeymoon is over.

Across the board, Obama's approval ratings are now sitting almost exactly where they were in the last few days before the election.

The NBC/WSJ poll has Obama's approval rating at 53% -- equal to the percentageof the popular vote he won in November.

Obama's approval rate among independents and Republicans is, respectively, 49% and 16%, within a few points of November exit polling of those groups.

Obama's favorable/unfavorable rating in the NBC/WSJ poll is 55%-34, almost identical to his fav/unfav in a mid-October 2008 NBC/WSJ poll.

This has put Obama on the defensive, forced to respond and correct inevitable canards like the US/Canada comparison. For example: "This is not like Canada where suddenly we are dismantling the system and everybody's signed up under some government program."

More from the President: "And I got a letter the other day from a woman. She said, 'I don't want government-run health care, I don't want socialized medicine, and don't touch my Medicare.' (Laughter.) And I wanted to say, well, I mean, that's what Medicare is, is it's a government-run health care plan that people are very happy with."

As NBC's Chuck Todd put it in 'First Read;' The president is showing his frustration, and he appears to be TRYING to tweak his messaging."

To be true, 'No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.' (Thanks to Prussian fieldmarshall Helmuth von Moltke the Elder for that one.) But the changes and message tweaking evident in the last week of July suggest the White House underestimated the power of this war of words.

That's my theory, at least.