Conventional wisdom is the GOP will pick up seats in the 2010 midterm congressional elections. Historically, the party opposite the one in the WH usually does. But 2010 is shaping up to be atypical.
Democrat Peter Fenn theorizes the midterms look good for the Democrats if they keep making the donuts, but MSNBC Political Director Chuck Todd draws some different lessons from the 11/03 exit polls.
Todd theorizes that for the GOP to win seats in 2010, they need to internalize the following lessons:
In New Jersey, Christie won independents by 30 points. In Virginia, McDonnell won independent voters by 33 points.
They're 'no longer fired up and ready to go.' Voter turnout in the 18-29 year old bracket was low and; what's more, McDonnell won that demographic over Deeds by 10 points.
Even after outspending his opponent, Corzine lost NJ. In NYC, after spending $100 million of his own cash, Bloomberg only won by 5 points!
And, perhaps the most important lesson to be learned if
you're a GOP strategist:
Look at NY-23, where "Republicans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory" after hardcore conservatives like Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty and assorted Tea Party types entered the fray. Consider the converse in NJ. where Chris Christie played his race straight down the moderate middle, refused to take the Palin bait and made a concerted effort to not make the NJ race a referendum on Obama.
Tactically, this means for the GOP to pick up seats they will
need to:
and head toward the center in a big way. Campaigns are funded from the fringe and won in the center. (That is, head toward the center once enough red meat has been thrown to the GOP donor base to fill the coffers.)
- reach out to the Young Conserative Coalition and...listen. This means backing off on things like gay marriage and immigation.
Then, let the worst economy and history do the rest.
Submit Your Theory
Pollster Peter Fenn says 2010 will not be your average midterm election. His theory: the GOP is doing exactly what minority parties should *not* do to win elections.
Tough tactics and new poll numbers support the theory that Obama's White House is losing the message war in the Healthcare debate.
Following Sarah Palin's surprise resignation and incomprehensible press announcement, the 'Daily Beast' collects 11 of the leading theories behind Palin's resignation.
The theory: they're the best-balanced team in baseball. Yankee hitting and pitching in game 1 definitely support the theory.
Human motivation exists in a five-tiered structure. The five tiers from lowest to highest are sociological needs, personal security needs, social needs, esteem needs and the penultimate need: self-actualization.
Turns out, the meteorite that supposedly killed the dinosaurs may have been 300,000 years late.
Want to know the secret to personalities and personal success? Use hair part theory. It worked for Margaret Thatcher.
A theory developed by Pavlov that shows one can change a stimulus part of a stimulus-response pattern (like a flinch from a loud noise) to something neutral (a blue light turning on) and generate the same response. In this example, the blue light could cause the subject to flinch.
Great man creat history through their actions, leadership, art, and innovation. At least, Carlyle thought so in the 19th century.
The explanation for 'Lost' is Jason Hunter's Time Loop theory. But you have to see it to really get it.
It’s true. Norton portrays the grown-up version of Calvin, while Brad Pitt plays his imaginary pal, Hobbes, reincarnated as Tyler Durden. The entire film is an allegory that details what happens to Calvin as an adult.
The most widespread and enduring conspiracy theories—British intelligence killed Princess Diana, the U.S. government orchestrated 9/11—are completely absurd. But that doesn’t stop them from drawing a vast and vehement audience. David Aaronovitch picks apart 12 grand conspiracy theories to conclude that they are concocted and promoted, in large part, by educated losers. (Yes, he actually calls them losers.)
'Gravity' hints at the passion behind Newton's theoriesDetroit Free PressBY JOHN MONAGHAN It's an image planted in the mind of every schoolkid: Isaac Newton sits beneath an apple tree as a shiny red orb bonks him on the noggin. ... ABC's Lost: Lighthouse Episode Recap & TheoriesMetrowny.com...
The island used to be connected to the rest of the Earth, but was detached during electromagnetism experiments conducted by the Dharma Initiative. It is capable of traveling anywhere with the only parameter being gravity
Now that they've had two days to think about it, what can the Internet's brainiest 'Lost' theorists tell us about the show's final season?
Inflation theory, which posits that the universe ballooned from subatomic scale to the size of a soccer ball during its first 10-33 seconds, has had great ...
There are a million different ingenious theories out there that explain this or that certain phenomenon and many are very complicated. See which one are surfacing on the interwebs today.
Nick Jonas (and the Administration) has just released a new song and it's called "Conspiracy Theory."
Listen to the newest single from his upcoming album "Who I Am" below:
Amateur historian Rick Rogers has spent decades developing a theory that either Dutch or Spanish traders visited Hawaii before Captain Cook's 1778 arrival. Maps from 1589 showing an approximation of Hawaii's shape and location; remains of a 1664 women indicating she had syphilis and the disappearance of 5 Spanish ships plying the Manila to Acapulco trade in the 1500 and 1600s make his case.
Scholars at the global warming skeptics thinktank, "The Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI)" say ocean acidification theory is a scare tactic ignores Cambrian data, the chemistry of CO2 and the alkaline affect of ocean rocks.
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